About This Blog

A QualitEvolution is intended to capture positions and experiences as a participant in the evolution of the Quality profession into the 21st century. From its origins as the brainchild of Corporate Industrial Statisticians, our profession has transformed and evolved to incorporate and adapt to the demands and expectations of our modern existence.

The scope of the subject matter within A QualitEvolution extends to the furthest ranges of quality, business transformation, management science, and quality issues especially pertinent to the members of ASQ in Canada.


Monday, January 14, 2013

NHL Prop Bets - For Academic Statistical Observation Only

Major league professional hockey has returned.  As a hockey fan, this is very interesting for me.

2013 NHL Odds and Prop Bets is available from www.vegasinsider.com.  Similar prop bets are available at this "Bovada" link . These websites are intended to inform and support the Sports Betting community.  From a purely statistical viewpoint, any bets made on the outcome of sporting contests comes with odds that favor the casino, since there is a percentage which is extracted for their "service".

Of course, I do not recommend betting on sports, particularly since it is an illegal practice in most jurisdictions unless performed in a properly licensed establishment.  However, I thought that it would be interesting to review the relative odds and probabilities of events, and compare that to the actual outcomes at the end of the season.

Due to the NHL Lockout, this will be a compressed season, so the outcomes will be irregular and more random.  As most teams are quite competitive with relative parity in the league, a significant streak of winning or losing will affect teams more profoundly than in a conventional season.

Based on the odds below, the "bookmakers" have evaluated the teams and players and made the following determinations.

- The Los Angeles Kings will not repeat as Stanley Cup champions, but will be bested in the Western Conference by the Vancouver Canucks.  Even if they prevail, either the Pittsburgh Penguins or the New York Rangers will triumph.
- No Canadian teams in the Eastern Conference will make the playoffs, and only Vancouver and Edmonton are projected to make the playoffs in the Western Conference.  For context, Edmonton has been at or near the bottom of the league for the last three years.
- The closest to an even-money bet is whether Edmonton will make the playoffs.  Due to the 15% "vig" or casino percentage, both outcomes would return less than 100% of the initial bet amount.  Making the playoffs would require a 20% premium, while missing the playoffs still requires a 5% premium from the bettor.  Pathetically, this is the best bet of the selections.
- Vancouver Canucks are deemed as the team most certain to make the playoffs, and subsequently a positive bet would require $12 for every $1 gained, resulting in an 8.333% return on investment.  When multiplied by the comparative 650% gain obtained from missing the playoffs, the product is 54.167% which means that almost 46% of the total betting amount is retained by the casino.  This is the worst bet because of the payout relative to the odds and probabilities.

It is always interesting to compare predictions made at the beginning of the season with outcomes realized at the end.  Forecasting is a combination of experience, speculation, and probabilities, and an essential technique for the Quality Practitioner.

However the best bets come from the Odds portion of the Craps table, where there is purity because the Casino does not take a percentage from Odds.  The mathematical odds of a bet (2:1 for 4 and 10, 3:2 for 5 and 9, 6:5 for 6 and 8) is exactly reflected in the payout.   Unless you have a crystal ball or are consistently lucky, sports betting will rapidly deplete your bankroll.

_____________________________________________________________________

2013 Stanley Cup

New York Rangers 8/1
Pittsburgh Penguins 8/1
Vancouver Canucks 10/1
Los Angeles Kings 12/1
Boston Bruins 14/1
Chicago Blackhawks 14/1
Philadelphia Flyers 14/1
St. Louis Blues 16/1
Detroit Red Wings 18/1
Edmonton Oilers 18/1
Minnesota Wild 18/1
San Jose Sharks 20/1
Carolina Hurricanes 22/1
Washington Capitals 25/1
Buffalo Sabres 28/1
Tampa Bay Lightning 30/1
Nashville Predators 33/1
New Jersey Devils 33/1
Montreal Canadiens 35/1
Toronto Maple Leafs 35/1
Dallas Stars 40/1
Florida Panthers 40/1
Ottawa Senators 40/1
Anaheim Ducks 45/1
Phoenix Coyotes 45/1
Calgary Flames 50/1
Colorado Avalanche 50/1
Winnipeg Jets 66/1
New York Islanders 75/1
Columbus Blue Jackets 100/1

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers 4/1
Pittsburgh Penguins 4/1
Philadelphia Flyers 7/1
Boston Bruins 15/2
Carolina Hurricanes 11/1
Washington Capitals 12/1
Buffalo Sabres 14/1
Tampa Bay Lightning 15/1
Montreal Canadiens 16/1
New Jersey Devils 16/1
Toronto Maple Leafs 18/1
Florida Panthers 20/1
Ottawa Senators 20/1
Winnipeg Jets 33/1
New York Islanders 35/1

Western Conference

Vancouver Canucks 9/2
Chicago Blackhawks 13/2
Los Angeles Kings 13/2
St. Louis Blues 7/1
Detroit Red Wings 8/1
Edmonton Oilers 9/1
Minnesota Wild 9/1
San Jose Sharks 11/1
Nashville Predators 16/1
Anaheim Ducks 20/1
Dallas Stars 20/1
Phoenix Coyotes 22/1
Calgary Flames 25/1
Colorado Avalanche 25/1
Columbus Blue Jackets 60/1

Atlantic Division

New York Rangers 19/10
Pittsburgh Penguins 21/10
Philadelphia Flyers 5/2
New Jersey Devils 6/1
New York Islanders 16/1

Northeast Division

Boston Bruins 13/10
Buffalo Sabres 3/1
Montreal Canadiens 5/1
Ottawa Senators 11/2
Toronto Maple Leafs 11/2

Southeast Division

Carolina Hurricanes 11/5
Washington Capitals 9/4
Tampa Bay Lightning 3/1
Florida Panthers 9/2
Winnipeg Jets 9/1

Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks 3/2
St. Louis Blues 9/4
Detroit Red Wings 3/1
Nashville Predators 11/2
Columbus Blue Jackets 20/1

Northwest Division

Vancouver Canucks 1/1
Minnesota Wild 3/1
Edmonton Oilers 3/1
Calgary Flames 12/1
Colorado Avalanche 12/1

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Kings 4/5
San Jose Sharks 11/4
Phoenix Coyotes 8/1
Dallas Stars 8/1
Anaheim Ducks 8/1

Anaheim Ducks
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Anaheim Ducks to make the playoffs?
Yes -140
No +110

Boston Bruins
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 57½

Boston Bruins to make the playoffs?
Yes -900
No +550

Buffalo Sabres
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 54½

Buffalo Sabres to make the playoffs?
Yes -165
No +135

Calgary Flames
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 50½

Calgary Flames to make the playoffs?
Yes +425
No -625

Carolina Hurricanes
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Carolina Hurricanes to make the playoffs?
Yes -215
No +175

Chicago Blackhawks
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 57½

Chicago Blackhawks to make the playoffs?
Yes -800
No +500

Colorado Avalanche
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 52½

Colorado Avalanche to make the playoffs?
Yes +400
No -600

Columbus Blue Jackets
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 47½

Columbus Blue Jackets to make the playoffs?
Yes +475
No -700

Dallas Stars
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 52½

Dallas Stars to make the playoffs?
Yes +350
No -500

Detroit Red Wings
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 56½

Detroit Red Wings to make the playoffs?
Yes -290
No +230

Edmonton Oilers
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Edmonton Oilers to make the playoffs?
Yes -125
No -105

Florida Panthers
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 52½

Florida Panthers to make the playoffs?
Yes +300
No -400

Los Angeles Kings
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 58½

Los Angeles Kings to make the playoffs?
Yes -900
No +550

Minnesota Wild
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 54½

Minnesota Wild to make the playoffs?
Yes -265
No +205

Montreal Canadiens
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Montreal Canadiens to make the playoffs?
Yes +200
No -260

Nashville Predators
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Nashville Predators to make the playoffs?
Yes -165
No +135

New Jersey Devils
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

New Jersey Devils to make the playoffs?
Yes -135
No +105

New York Islanders
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 49½

New York Islanders to make the playoffs?
Yes +475
No -700

New York Rangers
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 60½

New York Rangers to make the playoffs?
Yes -900
No +550

Ottawa Senators
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 52½

Ottawa Senators to make the playoffs?
Yes +350
No -500

Philadelphia Flyers
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 57½

Philadelphia Flyers to make the playoffs?
Yes -800
No +500

Phoenix Coyotes
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 50½

Phoenix Coyotes to make the playoffs?
Yes +275
No -350

Pittsburgh Penguins
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 61½

Pittsburgh Penguins to make the playoffs?
Yes -1000
No +600

San Jose Sharks
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 54½

San Jose Sharks to make the playoffs?
Yes -165
No +135

St. Louis Blues
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 57½

St. Louis Blues to make the playoffs?
Yes -800
No +500

Tampa Bay Lightning
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Tampa Bay Lightning to make the playoffs?
Yes -145
No +115

Toronto Maple Leafs
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 53½

Toronto Maple Leafs to make the playoffs?
Yes +200
No -260

Vancouver Canucks
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 58½

Vancouver Canucks to make the playoffs?
Yes -1200
No +650

Washington Capitals
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 54½

Washington Capitals to make the playoffs?
Yes -800
No +500

Winnipeg Jets
Over / Under Reg. Season Points 50½

Winnipeg Jets to make the playoffs?
Yes +475
No -700

Who will win the James Norris Trophy as the NHL’s best defenseman?

Erik Karlsson (OTT) 4/1
Zdeno Chara (BOS) 9/2
Shea Weber (NAS) 13/2
Kris Letang (PIT) 7/1
Ryan Suter (MIN) 10/1
Alex Pietrangelo (STL) 10/1
Brian Campbell (FLA) 12/1
Dan Boyle (SJ) 12/1
Dustin Byfuglien (WPG) 15/1
Alexander Edler (VAN) 15/1
P.K. Subban (MTL) 20/1
Dion Phaneuf (TOR) 20/1
Keith Yandle (PHO) 22/1
Michael Del Zotto (NYR) 25/1
Tobias Enstrom (WPG) 25/1
Jack Johnson (CBJ) 30/1
Mark Giordano (CGY) 35/1
Mark Streit (NYI) 35/1
Field (Any Other Player) 9/1

Who will win the Vezina Trophy for being the NHL’s top Goaltender?

Henrik Lundqvist (NYR) 4/1
Jonathan Quick (LA) 5/1
Pekka Rinne (NAS) 7/1
Ryan Miller (BUF) 8/1
Jimmy Howard (DET) 9/1
Jaroslav Halak (STL) 12/1
Cory Schneider (VAN) 12/1
Tuukka Rask (BOS) 12/1
Mike Smith (PHO) 15/1
Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT) 16/1
Martin Brodeur (NJ) 16/1
Roberto Luongo (VAN) 18/1
Cam Ward (CAR) 18/1
Carey Price (MON) 18/1
Niklas Backstrom (MIN) 20/1
Braden Holtby (WAS) 25/1
Kari Lehtonen (DAL) 35/1
Semyon Varlamov (COL) 40/1
Craig Anderson (OTT) 40/1
Ondrej Pavelec (WPG) 40/1
Devan Dubnyk (EDM) 50/1
Field (Any Other Player) 33/1

Who will win the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s points leader?
Sidney Crosby (PIT) 11/4
Evgeni Malkin (PIT) 5/1
Alex Ovechkin (WAS) 13/2
Steven Stamkos (TB) 13/2
Claude Giroux (PHI) 10/1
Henrik Sedin (VAN) 10/1
Nicklas Backstrom (WAS) 14/1
Brad Richards (NYR) 18/1
Daniel Sedin (VAN) 18/1
John Tavares (NYI) 20/1
Rick Nash (NYR) 28/1
Phil Kessel (TOR) 30/1
Jonathan Toews (CHI) 33/1
Jordan Eberle (EDM) 33/1
Martin St. Louis (TB) 35/1
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) 35/1
Corey Perry (ANA) 40/1
Henrik Zetterberg (DET) 40/1
Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ) 40/1
Jason Spezza (OTT) 40/1
Pavel Datsyuk (DET) 40/1
Eric Staal (CAR) 45/1
Joe Thornton (SJ) 45/1
Zach Parise (MIN) 45/1
Ryan Getzlaf (ANA) 50/1
Anze Kopitar (LA) 66/1
Mikko Koivu (MIN) 66/1
Patrick Sharp (CHI) 75/1
James Neal (PIT) 85/1
Jarome Iginla (CAL) 100/1
Field (Any Other Player) 12/1


Who will win the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy Trophy as the NHL’s Top Goal Scorer?
Steven Stamkos (TB) 11/4
Alexander Ovechkin (WAS) 4/1
Sidney Crosby (PIT) 4/1
Evgeni Malkin (PIT) 5/1
Daniel Sedin (VAN) 13/2
Rick Nash (NYR) 10/1
Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ) 14/1
Corey Perry (ANA) 18/1
Phil Kessel (TOR) 18/1
Jonathan Toews (CHI) 28/1
Jarome Iginla (CAL) 30/1
John Tavares (NYI) 30/1
Taylor Hall (EDM) 30/1
James Neal (PIT) 35/1
Patrick Marleau (SJ) 35/1
Jeff Carter (LA) 50/1
Patrick Sharp (CHI) 50/1
Field (Any Other Player) 15/1


Who will win the Hart Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s Most Valuable Player?
Sidney Crosby (PIT) 4/1
Steven Stamkos (TB) 6/1
Alex Ovechkin (WAS) 13/2
Claude Giroux (PHI) 13/2
Evgeni Malkin (PIT) 13/2
Henrik Sedin (VAN) 19/2
Brad Richards (NYR) 20/1
Jonathan Toews (CHI) 20/1
Eric Staal (CAR) 30/1
Phil Kessel (TOR) 30/1
Any Defenseman 30/1
Any Goaltender 5/1
Any Other Forward 11/5


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Jarome Iginla (CAL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 40½ (-110)o
(-120)u
Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Mike Cammalleri (CAL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 31½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Jiri Hudler (CAL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 27½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Curtis Glencross (CAL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 23½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Alex Tanguay (CAL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 32½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Dennis Wideman (CAL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 23½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 36½ (-120)o

(-110)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Jordan Eberle (EDM)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 40½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Taylor Hall (EDM)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 36½ (-120)o

(-110)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Nail Yakupov (EDM)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 27½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Ryan Smyth (EDM)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 24½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Ales Hemsky (EDM)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 26½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - P.K. Subban (MTL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 23½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Max Pacioretty (MTL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 35½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Tomas Plekanec (MTL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 33½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Andrei Markov (MTL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 16½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Erik Cole (MTL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 32½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Brian Gionta (MTL)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 21½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Erik Karlsson (OTT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 39½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Jason Spezza (OTT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 44½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Daniel Alfredsson (OTT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 31½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Sergei Gonchar (OTT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 21½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Milan Michalek (OTT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 28½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Kyle Turris (OTT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 24½ (-120)o

(-110)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Phil Kessel (TOR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 46½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Joffrey Lupul (TOR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 32½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Dion Phaneuf (TOR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 24½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - James van Riemsdyk (TOR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 28½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Mikhail Grabovski (TOR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 29½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Clarke MacArthur (TOR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 27½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Daniel Sedin (VAN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 47½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Henrik Sedin (VAN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 50½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Alexander Edler (VAN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 28½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Alex Burrows (VAN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 31½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Kevin Bieksa (VAN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 20½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Steven Stamkos (TB)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 55½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Alex Ovechkin (WAS)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 50½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Sidney Crosby (PIT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 59½ (-120)o

(-110)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 58½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Rick Nash (NYR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 40½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Corey Perry (ANA)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 43½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - James Neal (PIT)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 43½ (-120)o

(-110)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 47½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Jonathan Toews (CHI)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 42½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - John Tavares (NYI)
Must Play 11 GamesFor Action4:05p Over 47½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Nicklas Backstrom (WAS)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 45½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Claude Giroux (PHI)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 52½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Martin St. Louis (TB)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 45½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Brad Richards (NYR)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 45½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Joe Thornton (SJ)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 44½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Mikko Koivu (MIN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 40½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 41½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Pavel Datsyuk (DET)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 41½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Henrik Zetterberg (DET)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 40½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Zach Parise (MIN)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 40½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Drew Doughty (LAK)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 24½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under


NHL 2013 Regular Season - Total Points - Dustin Brown (LAK)
Must Play 11 Games For Action4:05p Over 30½ (-115)o

(-115)u


Under

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